Augur Labs Indicators

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Daily Growth Nowcast by Augur Labs	June 5, 2023	0.0	0.1	percent
Potential Growth by Augur Labs	June 2023	1.5	1.5	percent
Output Gap by Augur Labs	June 2023	1.5	1.5	percent

National Accounts

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Real GDP Growth Rate, Quarter-over-Quarter	Q1 2023	1.3	2.6	percent
Real GDP Growth Rate, Year-over-Year	Q1 2023	1.6	0.9	percent
Real Consumption Expenditures Growth Rate, Quarter-over-Quarter	Q1 2023	0.9	0.6	percent
Real Consumption Expenditures Growth Rate, Year-over-Year	Q1 2023	-0.3	-1.6	percent
Nominal GDP, National Currency	Q1 2023	26,486	26,138	billion
Nominal GDP, USD	Q1 2023	26,486	26,138	billion (USD)

Prices

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Consumer Price Index, Year-over-Year	April 2023	5.0	5.0	percent
Core Consumer Price Index, Year-over-Year	April 2023	5.5	5.6	percent
Producer Price Index, Year-over-Year	April 2023	-3.0	-1.1	percent
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Year-over-Year	April 2023	4.4	4.2	percent
Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy Price Index, Year-over-Year	April 2023	4.7	4.6	percent
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation	April 2023	4.8	4.7	percent
Cleveland Fed Median Inflation	April 2023	7.0	7.1	percent
ATSIX 10-Year Inflation Expectations	May 2023	2.3	2.2	percent
Index of Common Inflation Expectations	Q1 2023	2.2	2.3	percent

Labor

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Unemployment Rate	May 2023	3.7	3.4	percent
Nonfarm Payroll	May 2023	156,105	155,766	persons
Employed Persons	May 2023	160,721	161,031	persons
Unemployed Persons	May 2023	6,097	5,657	persons
Initial Claims	May 27, 2023	229,500	232,000	persons
Job Openings	April 2023	10,103	9,745	thousand
Labor Force	May 2023	166,818	166,688	persons
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker	April 2023	6.4	6.5	percent

Domestic Trade & Household

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Real Retail Sales, Year-over-Year	April 2023	-3.2	-2.4	percent
Real Retail Sales, Month-over-Month	April 2023	0.1	-0.7	percent
Personal Income	April 2023	15,566	15,560	million
Personal Savings Rate	April 2023	4.1	4.5	percent
Real Retail Sales ex. Auto	April 2023	-2.7	-2.0	percent

Foreign Trade

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Exports, Year-over-Year	March 2023	2.6	5.6	percent
Imports, Year-over-Year	March 2023	-11.8	-1.6	percent

Balance of Payment

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Current Account, USD	Q4 2022	-206,805	-219,002	million (USD)

Production

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Industrial Production, Year-over-Year	April 2023	0.2	0.1	percent
Industrial Production, Month-over-Month	April 2023	0.5	0.0	percent
Capacity Utilization	April 2023	78.3	77.6

Orders

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
New Orders, Month-over-Month	April 2023	1.3	-0.6	percent

Housing

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Building Permits	April 2023	1,417,000	1,437,000	units
Housing Starts	April 2023	1,401	1,371	units
New Home Sales	April 2023	683	656	units
Private Construction Spending, Year-over-Year	April 2023	-9.2	-8.5	percent

Money & Credit

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Fed Funds Target Rate	June 5, 2023	5.125	5.125	percent
Broad Money	April 2023	20,673	20,840	billion
Narrow Money	April 2023	18,629	18,964	billion
Shadow Rate (Adjusted for Quantitative Easing/Tightening)	February 2023	5.16	4.91	percent

Government

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Government Budget Surplus / Deficit (% of GDP)	April 2023	-7.3	-6.8	percent

Cyclical Indicators

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Coincident Index	April 2023	0.1	-0.4
Weekly Economic Index (WEI)	May 27, 2023	1.1	1.1	percent
Brave-Butters-Kelley Coincident Index	April 2023	-0.5	-0.9	percent

Automobile

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Vehicle Sales	May 2023	1,253,750	1,340,750	units

Transportation

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers	June 4, 2023	2648024	2221884	persons

Surveys

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Consumer Confidence	May 2023	59.2	63.5	points
CEO Confidence	Q1 2023	43.0	32.0	points
Manufacturing PMI	May 2023	48.4	50.2
Services PMI	May 2023	55.1	53.6
Chicago Business Barometer	May 2023	40.4	48.6	points
ISM Manufacturing PMI	May 2023	46.9	47.1
ISM Services PMI	April 2023	51.9	51.2
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index	May 2023	102.3	103.7	points
Empire State Manufacturing Survey	May 2023	-31.8	10.8	points
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey	May 2023	-10.4	-31.3	points
Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity	May 2023	-15.0	-10.0	points
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index	April 2023	89.0	90.1	points

Market

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
10-Year Bond Yield	June 5, 2023	3.69	3.69	percent
3-Month Bill Rate	June 2, 2023	5.23	5.24	percent
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE)	June 2023	26.8	26.2
Real Effective Exchange Rate (Trade-Weighted)	June 2, 2023	17.1	17.0
2-Year/10-Year Yield Curve	June 2, 2023	-83.6	-76.8	basis points