Augur Labs Indicators

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Daily Growth Nowcast by Augur Labs	April 25, 2024	2.0	2.1	percent
Potential Growth by Augur Labs	April 2024	1.8	1.8	percent
Output Gap by Augur Labs	April 2024	1.6	1.6	percent

National Accounts

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Real GDP Growth Rate, Quarter-over-Quarter	Q1 2024	1.6	3.4	percent
Real GDP Growth Rate, Year-over-Year	Q1 2024	3.0	3.1	percent
Real Consumption Expenditures Growth Rate, Quarter-over-Quarter	Q1 2024	0.0	2.9	percent
Real Consumption Expenditures Growth Rate, Year-over-Year	Q1 2024	1.9	2.0	percent
Nominal GDP, National Currency	Q1 2024	28,284	27,957	billion
Nominal GDP, USD	Q1 2024	28,284	27,957	billion (USD)

Prices

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Consumer Price Index, Year-over-Year	March 2024	3.5	3.2	percent
Core Consumer Price Index, Year-over-Year	March 2024	3.8	3.8	percent
Producer Price Index, Year-over-Year	March 2024	-0.7	-1.4	percent
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Year-over-Year	February 2024	2.5	2.4	percent
Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy Price Index, Year-over-Year	February 2024	2.8	2.9	percent
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation	February 2024	3.1	3.2	percent
Cleveland Fed Median Inflation	March 2024	4.6	4.6	percent
ATSIX 10-Year Inflation Expectations	March 2024	2.2	2.2	percent
Index of Common Inflation Expectations	Q4 2023	2.1	2.1	percent

Labor

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Unemployment Rate	March 2024	3.8	3.9	percent
Nonfarm Payroll	March 2024	158,133	157,830	persons
Employed Persons	March 2024	161,466	160,968	persons
Unemployed Persons	March 2024	6,429	6,458	persons
Initial Claims	April 20, 2024	213,250	214,500	persons
Job Openings	February 2024	8,756	8,748	thousand
Labor Force	March 2024	167,895	167,426	persons
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker	March 2024	4.9	5.1	percent

Domestic Trade & Household

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Real Retail Sales, Year-over-Year	March 2024	0.8	-0.8	percent
Real Retail Sales, Month-over-Month	March 2024	0.3	0.6	percent
Personal Income	February 2024	16,932	16,947	million
Personal Savings Rate	February 2024	3.6	4.1	percent
Real Retail Sales ex. Auto	March 2024	1.2	-0.8	percent

Foreign Trade

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Exports, Year-over-Year	February 2024	2.8	-3.5	percent
Imports, Year-over-Year	February 2024	2.2	-1.7	percent

Balance of Payment

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Current Account, USD	Q4 2023	-194,810	-196,378	million (USD)

Production

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Industrial Production, Year-over-Year	March 2024	-0.0	-0.3	percent
Industrial Production, Month-over-Month	March 2024	0.4	0.4	percent
Capacity Utilization	March 2024	77.4	77.1

Orders

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
New Orders, Month-over-Month	March 2024	0.2	0.4	percent

Housing

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Building Permits	March 2024	1,467,000	1,523,000	units
Housing Starts	March 2024	1,321	1,549	units
New Home Sales	March 2024	693	637	units
Private Construction Spending, Year-over-Year	February 2024	6.3	4.5	percent

Money & Credit

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Fed Funds Target Rate	April 25, 2024	5.375	5.375	percent
Broad Money	March 2024	20,841	20,749	billion
Narrow Money	March 2024	17,998	17,935	billion
Shadow Rate (Adjusted for Quantitative Easing/Tightening)	March 2024	5.98	6.06	percent

Government

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Government Budget Surplus / Deficit (% of GDP)	March 2024	-5.9	-6.4	percent

Cyclical Indicators

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Coincident Index	March 2024	0.1	0.1
Weekly Economic Index (WEI)	April 13, 2024	2.0	1.6	percent
Brave-Butters-Kelley Coincident Index	February 2024	-0.2	-0.8	percent

Automobile

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Vehicle Sales	March 2024	1,290,750	1,308,083	units

Transportation

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers	April 24, 2024	2296148	2134276	persons

Surveys

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
Consumer Confidence	April 2024	77.9	79.4	points
CEO Confidence	Q1 2024	53.0	46.0	points
Manufacturing PMI	April 2024	49.9	51.9
Services PMI	April 2024	50.9	51.7
Chicago Business Barometer	March 2024	41.4	44.0	points
ISM Manufacturing PMI	March 2024	50.3	47.8
ISM Services PMI	March 2024	51.4	52.6
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index	March 2024	104.7	104.8	points
Empire State Manufacturing Survey	April 2024	-14.3	-20.9	points
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey	April 2024	15.5	3.2	points
Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity	April 2024	-7.0	-11.0	points
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index	March 2024	88.5	89.4	points

Market

Indicator	Reference	Last	Previous	Unit
10-Year Bond Yield	April 25, 2024	4.70	4.65	percent
3-Month Bill Rate	April 24, 2024	5.26	5.25	percent
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE)	April 2024	29.6	30.8
Real Effective Exchange Rate (Trade-Weighted)	April 24, 2024	19.2	19.0
2-Year/10-Year Yield Curve	April 24, 2024	-30.0	-32.9	basis points