United States Key Economic Indicators

Augur Labs Indicators

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Daily Growth Nowcast by Augur Labs December 8, 2023 1.7 1.1 percent
Potential Growth by Augur Labs December 2023 1.7 1.7 percent
Output Gap by Augur Labs December 2023 1.5 1.5 percent

National Accounts

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Real GDP Growth Rate, Quarter-over-Quarter Q3 2023 5.2 2.1 percent
Real GDP Growth Rate, Year-over-Year Q3 2023 3.0 2.4 percent
Real Consumption Expenditures Growth Rate, Quarter-over-Quarter Q3 2023 3.5 0.9 percent
Real Consumption Expenditures Growth Rate, Year-over-Year Q3 2023 1.4 0.1 percent
Nominal GDP, National Currency Q3 2023 27,644 27,063 billion
Nominal GDP, USD Q3 2023 27,644 27,063 billion (USD)

Prices

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Consumer Price Index, Year-over-Year October 2023 3.2 3.7 percent
Core Consumer Price Index, Year-over-Year October 2023 4.0 4.1 percent
Producer Price Index, Year-over-Year October 2023 -3.6 -3.4 percent
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Year-over-Year October 2023 3.0 3.4 percent
Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy Price Index, Year-over-Year October 2023 3.5 3.7 percent
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation October 2023 3.6 3.8 percent
Cleveland Fed Median Inflation October 2023 5.3 5.5 percent
ATSIX 10-Year Inflation Expectations November 2023 2.3 2.2 percent
Index of Common Inflation Expectations Q3 2023 2.1 2.2 percent

Labor

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Unemployment Rate November 2023 3.7 3.9 percent
Nonfarm Payroll November 2023 157,087 156,888 persons
Employed Persons November 2023 161,969 161,222 persons
Unemployed Persons November 2023 6,291 6,506 persons
Initial Claims December 2, 2023 220,750 220,250 persons
Job Openings October 2023 8,733 9,350 thousand
Labor Force November 2023 168,260 167,728 persons
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker October 2023 5.2 5.2 percent

Domestic Trade & Household

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Real Retail Sales, Year-over-Year October 2023 -0.7 0.4 percent
Real Retail Sales, Month-over-Month October 2023 -0.2 0.5 percent
Personal Income October 2023 16,849 16,805 million
Personal Savings Rate October 2023 3.8 3.7 percent
Real Retail Sales ex. Auto October 2023 -0.9 -0.2 percent

Foreign Trade

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Exports, Year-over-Year October 2023 -1.2 -2.3 percent
Imports, Year-over-Year October 2023 -3.9 -3.0 percent

Balance of Payment

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Current Account, USD Q2 2023 -212,104 -214,472 million (USD)

Production

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Industrial Production, Year-over-Year October 2023 -0.7 -0.2 percent
Industrial Production, Month-over-Month October 2023 -0.6 0.1 percent
Capacity Utilization October 2023 77.2 77.8

Orders

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
New Orders, Month-over-Month October 2023 -0.3 -0.2 percent

Housing

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Building Permits October 2023 1,498,000 1,471,000 units
Housing Starts October 2023 1,372 1,346 units
New Home Sales October 2023 679 719 units
Private Construction Spending, Year-over-Year October 2023 0.7 -2.0 percent

Money & Credit

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Fed Funds Target Rate December 8, 2023 5.375 5.375 percent
Broad Money October 2023 20,726 20,755 billion
Narrow Money October 2023 18,081 18,172 billion
Shadow Rate (Adjusted for Quantitative Easing/Tightening) October 2023 6.14 6.12 percent

Government

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Government Budget Surplus / Deficit (% of GDP) October 2023 -6.0 -6.1 percent

Cyclical Indicators

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Coincident Index October 2023 -0.5 -0.0
Weekly Economic Index (WEI) November 25, 2023 2.1 1.8 percent
Brave-Butters-Kelley Coincident Index October 2023 -0.8 -0.2 percent

Automobile

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Vehicle Sales November 2023 1,276,917 1,286,250 units

Transportation

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers December 7, 2023 2373456 1993648 persons

Surveys

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
Consumer Confidence December 2023 69.4 61.3 points
CEO Confidence Q4 2023 46.0 48.0 points
Manufacturing PMI November 2023 49.4 50.0
Services PMI November 2023 50.8 50.6
Chicago Business Barometer November 2023 55.8 44.0 points
ISM Manufacturing PMI November 2023 46.7 46.7
ISM Services PMI November 2023 52.7 51.8
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index November 2023 102.0 99.1 points
Empire State Manufacturing Survey November 2023 9.1 -4.6 points
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey November 2023 -5.9 -9.0 points
Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity November 2023 -5.0 3.0 points
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index October 2023 90.7 90.8 points

Market

Indicator Reference Last Previous Unit
10-Year Bond Yield December 8, 2023 4.23 4.13 percent
3-Month Bill Rate December 7, 2023 5.24 5.25 percent
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE) December 2023 27.6 27.6
Real Effective Exchange Rate (Trade-Weighted) December 7, 2023 17.4 17.2
2-Year/10-Year Yield Curve December 7, 2023 -42.3 -46.1 basis points
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